The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 45% · evidence 1 pattern (24 obs)
- Last close
- ₹919.10 as of Thu 24 Sep, 15:30 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹913.22 – ₹924.06 -0.64% · +0.54%
- Typical move
- -0.06% median of 289 windows
- Trend line
- -0.049%/candle · R² 0.50 carried forward -0.59%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 52% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 45% of the time (130 of 289 windows). The evidence in progress: Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 31 of 72 times across 39 names. Weighed together as 24 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 52%.
The range: 913.22 to 924.06 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 919.10, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.64% (the 20th percentile) to +0.54% (the 80th); median -0.06%, typical size either way 0.44%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -2.85%, the best +2.78%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: falling 0.05% per candle, R² 0.50
Slope -0.05% per candle (down), R² 0.50 (choppy), 14 candles from the window's high, -0.57% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.59% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.