The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 51% · evidence 3 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹232.20 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:25 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹230.37 – ₹233.27 -0.79% · +0.46%
- Typical move
- +0.03% median of 63 windows
- Trend line
- +0.039%/candle · R² 0.45 carried forward +0.47%
- Record
- 57 of 100 leaned right (57%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 49% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 51% of the time (32 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Hammer (live, up): went its way 663 of 1556 times across 188 names; Lower highs and lower lows (live, down): went its way 378 of 758 times across 82 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 35 of 82 times across 43 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 49%.
The range: 230.37 to 233.27 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 232.20, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.79% (the 20th percentile) to +0.46% (the 80th); median +0.03%, typical size either way 0.49%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.30%, the best +1.06%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.04% per candle, R² 0.45
Slope +0.04% per candle (up), R² 0.45 (choppy), 15 candles from the window's low, +0.95% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.47% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 57 of 100 leaned the right way (57%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 57 saw the close go the way they leaned; 59 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.