Leaning down over the next hour: 57% chance the close is lower

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 32% of the time (20 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Volume spike (live, up): went its way 648 of 1501 times across 174 names; Bullish engulfing (live, up): went its way 597 of 1350 times across 204 names; Morning star (live, up): went its way 282 of 647 times across 154 names; Opening range breakout (recent, down): went its way 170 of 331 times across 137 names; RSI into overbought / oversold (recent, up): went its way 304 of 658 times across 94 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 30 of 71 times across 39 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 43%.

The range: 1,372.25 to 1,379.00 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 1,377.90, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.41% (the 20th percentile) to +0.08% (the 80th); median -0.07%, typical size either way 0.19%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.98%, the best +0.81%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 12 candles typically reached +0.47% in the hit's favour and -0.62% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

The trend line: falling 0.06% per candle, R² 0.89

Slope -0.06% per candle (down), R² 0.89 (straight), 18 candles from the window's high, -0.86% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.70% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this straight have tended to continue more often than not.

How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next two hours: 62% chance the close is lower

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 18% of the time (3 of 17 windows). The evidence in progress: Volume spike (live, up): went its way 154 of 408 times across 57 names; Hammer (live, up): went its way 172 of 371 times across 94 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 24 of 50 times across 31 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 38%.

The range: 1,368.39 to 1,377.62 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 1,377.90, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from -0.69% (the 20th percentile) to -0.02% (the 80th); median -0.11%, typical size either way 0.17%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.96%, the best +0.37%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 8 candles typically reached +0.50% in the hit's favour and -0.94% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

The trend line: falling 0.05% per candle, R² 0.62

Slope -0.05% per candle (down), R² 0.62 (choppy), 13 candles from the window's high, -1.25% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print -0.38% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 42 of 100 leaned the right way (42%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 42 saw the close go the way they leaned; 55 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next six trading hours: 62% chance the close is lower

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 0% of the time (0 of 1 windows). The evidence in progress: Hammer (live, up): went its way 35 of 68 times across 32 names; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 145 of 269 times across 53 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 19 of 25 times across 17 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 38%.

The range: 1,363.29 to 1,363.29 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 1,377.90, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from -1.06% (the 20th percentile) to -1.06% (the 80th); median -1.06%, typical size either way 1.06%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.06%, the best -1.06%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 6 candles typically reached +1.32% in the hit's favour and -1.26% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 53 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next session: 56% chance the close is lower

On this name's own daily candles the close 1 session later was higher 48% of the time (121 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, down): went its way 67 of 119 times on this name; Shooting star (recent, down): went its way 10 of 15 times on this name. Weighed together as 70 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 44%.

The range: 1,373.37 to 1,443.79 — where four in five earlier windows of 1 session ended

From the last close of 1,405.70, this name's own 1 session moves ran from -2.30% (the 20th percentile) to +2.71% (the 80th); median -0.10%, typical size either way 1.87%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -11.99%, the best +15.00%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 1 session typically reached +1.65% in the hit's favour and -1.10% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

The trend line: falling 0.56% per candle, R² 0.38

Slope -0.56% per candle (down), R² 0.38 (choppy), 16 candles from the window's high, -13.57% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 1 session it would print -0.56% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 6 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.