Leaning down over the next hour: 62% chance the close is lower

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 38% of the time (141 of 367 windows). Nothing in progress on the latest candle has a record worth counting, so the chance is the base rate alone.

The range: 30.16 to 30.41 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 30.31, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.49% (the 20th percentile) to +0.32% (the 80th); median -0.10%, typical size either way 0.33%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -2.25%, the best +1.92%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.03% per candle, R² 0.49

Slope -0.03% per candle (down), R² 0.49 (choppy), 14 candles from the window's high, -0.59% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.31% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next six trading hours: 64% chance the close is lower

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 45% of the time (13 of 29 windows). The evidence in progress: Shooting star (live, down): went its way 24 of 48 times across 27 names; VWAP cross (recent, up): went its way 3 of 6 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, up): went its way 71 of 216 times across 56 names; Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, up): went its way 32 of 110 times across 43 names; Break of the previous session's high / low (recent, up): went its way 23 of 99 times across 47 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 19 of 25 times across 17 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 36%.

The range: 29.83 to 30.56 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 30.31, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from -1.58% (the 20th percentile) to +0.82% (the 80th); median -0.10%, typical size either way 1.37%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -2.28%, the best +2.03%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 6 candles typically reached +1.25% in the hit's favour and -1.33% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

The trend line: falling 0.06% per candle, R² 0.21

Slope -0.06% per candle (down), R² 0.21 (choppy), 16 candles from the window's high, -1.08% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 6 candles it would print -0.34% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 53 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.