No lean over the next hour: 46% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 57% of the time (36 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Volume spike (live, up): went its way 665 of 1549 times across 176 names; N consecutive rising candles (live, up): went its way 125 of 299 times across 114 names; Shooting star (recent, down): went its way 569 of 1072 times across 171 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 46%.

The range: 629.12 to 631.76 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 630.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.14% (the 20th percentile) to +0.28% (the 80th); median +0.06%, typical size either way 0.15%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.18%, the best +1.06%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.02% per candle, R² 0.52

Slope +0.02% per candle (up), R² 0.52 (choppy), 18 candles from the window's low, +0.61% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.23% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 57 of 100 leaned the right way (57%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 57 saw the close go the way they leaned; 59 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next two hours: 46% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 59% of the time (10 of 17 windows). The evidence in progress: Volume spike (live, up): went its way 160 of 425 times across 59 names; VWAP cross (recent, up): went its way 408 of 978 times across 183 names; Evening star (recent, down): went its way 83 of 170 times across 74 names; N consecutive rising candles (building, up): went its way 51 of 129 times across 65 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 10 of 24 times across 15 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 46%.

The range: 629.12 to 631.20 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 630.00, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from -0.14% (the 20th percentile) to +0.19% (the 80th); median +0.06%, typical size either way 0.14%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.70%, the best +0.58%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.01% per candle, R² 0.11

Slope +0.01% per candle (up), R² 0.11 (choppy), 16 candles from the window's low, +0.87% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print +0.09% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 53 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next six trading hours: 52% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 100% of the time (1 of 1 windows). The evidence in progress: VWAP cross (recent, up): went its way 119 of 295 times across 59 names; Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 111 of 204 times across 44 names; N consecutive rising candles (building, up): went its way 3 of 16 times across 11 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 1 of 6 times across 5 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 52%.

The range: 635.36 to 635.36 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 630.00, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from +0.85% (the 20th percentile) to +0.85% (the 80th); median +0.85%, typical size either way 0.85%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was +0.85%, the best +0.85%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

How these outlooks have fared: 52 of 100 leaned the right way (52%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 52 saw the close go the way they leaned; 57 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next session: 45% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 1 session later was higher 48% of the time (119 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Moving-average cross (live, down): went its way 18 of 26 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 48 of 103 times on this name; Bearish engulfing (recent, down): went its way 7 of 15 times on this name; N consecutive falling candles (building, down): went its way 5 of 6 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 4 of 5 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 45%.

The range: 584.74 to 605.71 — where four in five earlier windows of 1 session ended

From the last close of 596.00, this name's own 1 session moves ran from -1.89% (the 20th percentile) to +1.63% (the 80th); median -0.12%, typical size either way 1.28%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -6.04%, the best +13.53%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.11% per candle, R² 0.06

Slope +0.11% per candle (up), R² 0.05 (choppy), 18 candles from the window's low, +3.94% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 1 session it would print +0.11% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 6 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next five sessions: 49% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 5 sessions later was higher 50% of the time (124 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Moving-average cross (live, down): went its way 13 of 26 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 53 of 101 times on this name; Bearish engulfing (recent, down): went its way 8 of 14 times on this name; N consecutive falling candles (building, down): went its way 2 of 6 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 1 of 5 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 49%.

The range: 571.98 to 623.30 — where four in five earlier windows of 5 sessions ended

From the last close of 596.00, this name's own 5 sessions moves ran from -4.03% (the 20th percentile) to +4.58% (the 80th); median -0.24%, typical size either way 3.49%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -14.79%, the best +17.98%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.11% per candle, R² 0.06

Slope +0.11% per candle (up), R² 0.05 (choppy), 18 candles from the window's low, +3.94% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 5 sessions it would print +0.56% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 4 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next ten sessions: 53% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 10 sessions later was higher 48% of the time (120 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Moving-average cross (live, down): went its way 11 of 26 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 46 of 100 times on this name; Bearish engulfing (recent, down): went its way 8 of 14 times on this name; N consecutive falling candles (building, down): went its way 2 of 6 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 2 of 5 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 53%.

The range: 565.37 to 635.22 — where four in five earlier windows of 10 sessions ended

From the last close of 596.00, this name's own 10 sessions moves ran from -5.14% (the 20th percentile) to +6.58% (the 80th); median -0.16%, typical size either way 4.74%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -19.65%, the best +18.01%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.11% per candle, R² 0.06

Slope +0.11% per candle (up), R² 0.05 (choppy), 18 candles from the window's low, +3.94% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 10 sessions it would print +1.12% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 2 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.