Leaning down over the next two hours: 62% chance the close is lower

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 6% of the time (1 of 17 windows). The evidence in progress: Marubozu (live, down): went its way 297 of 531 times across 106 names; Lower highs and lower lows (live, down): went its way 229 of 429 times across 61 names; Hammer (recent, up): went its way 172 of 371 times across 94 names; Bearish engulfing (recent, down): went its way 220 of 379 times across 106 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 24 of 50 times across 31 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 38%.

The range: 758.21 to 764.33 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 765.25, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from -0.92% (the 20th percentile) to -0.12% (the 80th); median -0.41%, typical size either way 0.41%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.27%, the best +0.19%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 8 candles typically reached +0.61% in the hit's favour and -0.59% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

The trend line: falling 0.06% per candle, R² 0.59

Slope -0.06% per candle (down), R² 0.59 (choppy), 16 candles from the window's high, -1.72% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print -0.46% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 42 of 100 leaned the right way (42%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 42 saw the close go the way they leaned; 55 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next six trading hours: 61% chance the close is lower

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 0% of the time (0 of 1 windows). The evidence in progress: Lower highs and lower lows (live, down): went its way 108 of 200 times across 43 names; Marubozu (live, down): went its way 49 of 99 times across 40 names; N consecutive falling candles (recent, down): went its way 24 of 56 times across 32 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 19 of 25 times across 17 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 39%.

The range: 751.86 to 751.86 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 765.25, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from -1.75% (the 20th percentile) to -1.75% (the 80th); median -1.75%, typical size either way 1.75%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.75%, the best -1.75%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 6 candles typically reached +1.25% in the hit's favour and -1.25% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 53 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next ten sessions: 56% chance the close is lower

On this name's own daily candles the close 10 sessions later was higher 40% of the time (99 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Trend line: slope, length, strength (live, down): went its way 7 of 13 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 62 of 123 times on this name; RSI into overbought / oversold (recent, up): went its way 6 of 17 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 6 of 8 times on this name. Weighed together as 70 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 44%.

The range: 658.11 to 765.73 — where four in five earlier windows of 10 sessions ended

From the last close of 714.10, this name's own 10 sessions moves ran from -7.84% (the 20th percentile) to +7.23% (the 80th); median -2.97%, typical size either way 6.02%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -24.85%, the best +82.24%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 10 sessions typically reached +5.56% in the hit's favour and -5.83% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

The trend line: falling 0.72% per candle, R² 0.87

Slope -0.72% per candle (down), R² 0.87 (straight), 18 candles from the window's high, -14.70% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 10 sessions it would print -7.21% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this straight have tended to continue more often than not.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 2 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.