No lean over the next hour: 52% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 79% of the time (50 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: VWAP cross (live, down): went its way 1112 of 2051 times across 202 names; Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, up): went its way 721 of 1669 times across 201 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 52%.

The range: 531.05 to 535.94 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 531.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from +0.01% (the 20th percentile) to +0.93% (the 80th); median +0.49%, typical size either way 0.64%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.85%, the best +1.66%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.10% per candle, R² 0.72

Slope -0.10% per candle (down), R² 0.72 (choppy), 16 candles from the window's high, -1.97% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -1.24% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 54 of 100 leaned the right way (54%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 54 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next two hours: 55% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 76% of the time (13 of 17 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, down): went its way 217 of 460 times across 100 names; VWAP cross (recent, down): went its way 2 of 5 times on this name; Higher highs and higher lows (recent, up): went its way 131 of 307 times across 65 names; Volume spike (recent, down): went its way 220 of 430 times across 56 names; N consecutive falling candles (building, down): went its way 109 of 217 times across 81 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 55%.

The range: 528.88 to 540.24 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 531.00, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from -0.40% (the 20th percentile) to +1.74% (the 80th); median +1.13%, typical size either way 1.17%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.17%, the best +2.17%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.07% per candle, R² 0.30

Slope +0.07% per candle (up), R² 0.30 (choppy), 18 candles from the window's low, +0.57% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print +0.58% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 46 of 100 leaned the right way (46%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 46 saw the close go the way they leaned; 58 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next six trading hours: 54% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 100% of the time (1 of 1 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, down): went its way 151 of 279 times across 54 names; Shooting star (live, down): went its way 24 of 48 times across 27 names; Opening range breakout (recent, up): went its way 26 of 97 times across 46 names; VWAP cross (recent, down): went its way 168 of 303 times across 56 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 54%.

The range: 533.71 to 533.71 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 531.00, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from +0.51% (the 20th percentile) to +0.51% (the 80th); median +0.51%, typical size either way 0.51%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was +0.51%, the best +0.51%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 54 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next session: 51% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 1 session later was higher 48% of the time (121 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Inside bar, then a breakout (live, up): went its way 17 of 35 times on this name; Morning star (live, up): went its way 3 of 7 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 62 of 128 times on this name; Gap at the open (recent, up): went its way 67 of 125 times on this name; Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 20 of 49 times on this name; Marubozu (recent, down): went its way 10 of 15 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 51%.

The range: 490.58 to 514.52 — where four in five earlier windows of 1 session ended

From the last close of 502.90, this name's own 1 session moves ran from -2.45% (the 20th percentile) to +2.31% (the 80th); median -0.18%, typical size either way 1.80%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -12.68%, the best +13.42%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.51% per candle, R² 0.71

Slope -0.51% per candle (down), R² 0.71 (choppy), 17 candles from the window's high, -8.66% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 1 session it would print -0.51% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 6 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next five sessions: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 5 sessions later was higher 46% of the time (115 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Inside bar, then a breakout (live, up): went its way 21 of 35 times on this name; Morning star (live, up): went its way 3 of 7 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 63 of 127 times on this name; Gap at the open (recent, up): went its way 62 of 124 times on this name; Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 23 of 46 times on this name; Marubozu (recent, down): went its way 8 of 14 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.

The range: 476.60 to 529.91 — where four in five earlier windows of 5 sessions ended

From the last close of 502.90, this name's own 5 sessions moves ran from -5.23% (the 20th percentile) to +5.37% (the 80th); median -0.77%, typical size either way 4.02%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -20.92%, the best +19.62%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.51% per candle, R² 0.71

Slope -0.51% per candle (down), R² 0.71 (choppy), 17 candles from the window's high, -8.66% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 5 sessions it would print -2.56% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 4 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next ten sessions: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 10 sessions later was higher 44% of the time (111 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Inside bar, then a breakout (live, up): went its way 19 of 35 times on this name; Morning star (live, up): went its way 3 of 7 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 51 of 126 times on this name; Gap at the open (recent, up): went its way 56 of 124 times on this name; Lower highs and lower lows (recent, down): went its way 26 of 45 times on this name; Marubozu (recent, down): went its way 6 of 14 times on this name. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.

The range: 466.24 to 537.80 — where four in five earlier windows of 10 sessions ended

From the last close of 502.90, this name's own 10 sessions moves ran from -7.29% (the 20th percentile) to +6.94% (the 80th); median -1.06%, typical size either way 6.37%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -26.33%, the best +33.78%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.51% per candle, R² 0.71

Slope -0.51% per candle (down), R² 0.71 (choppy), 17 candles from the window's high, -8.66% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 10 sessions it would print -5.11% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 2 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.