The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 46% · evidence 2 patterns (61 obs)
- Last close
- ₹285.20 as of Mon 5 Oct, 15:56 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹283.66 – ₹286.45 -0.54% · +0.44%
- Typical move
- -0.05% median of 732 windows
- Trend line
- -0.014%/candle · R² 0.12 carried forward -0.17%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 52% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 46% of the time (336 of 732 windows). The evidence in progress: Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, up): went its way 38 of 66 times on this name; Bullish engulfing (recent, up): went its way 13 of 27 times on this name. Weighed together as 61 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 52%.
The range: 283.66 to 286.45 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 285.20, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.54% (the 20th percentile) to +0.44% (the 80th); median -0.05%, typical size either way 0.38%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -3.53%, the best +3.28%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: falling 0.01% per candle, R² 0.12
Slope -0.01% per candle (down), R² 0.12 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's high, -0.14% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.17% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.