The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 8% · evidence 1 pattern (60 obs)
- Last close
- ₹596.00 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:25 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹593.91 – ₹595.28 -0.35% · -0.12%
- Typical move
- -0.19% median of 63 windows
- Trend line
- -0.035%/candle · R² 0.85 carried forward -0.42%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
Leaning down over the next hour: 66% chance the close is lower
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 8% of the time (5 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Volume spike (live, up): went its way 665 of 1549 times across 176 names. Weighed together as 60 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 34%.
The range: 593.91 to 595.28 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 596.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.35% (the 20th percentile) to -0.12% (the 80th); median -0.19%, typical size either way 0.19%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.92%, the best +0.07%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: falling 0.04% per candle, R² 0.85
Slope -0.03% per candle (down), R² 0.85 (straight), 16 candles from the window's high, -0.49% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.42% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this straight have tended to continue more often than not.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 62 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.