No lean over the next hour: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 56% of the time (35 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Moving-average cross (recent, up): went its way 474 of 1043 times across 202 names; N consecutive falling candles (building, down): went its way 281 of 515 times across 133 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 30 of 71 times across 39 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.

The range: 292.21 to 294.79 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 293.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.27% (the 20th percentile) to +0.61% (the 80th); median +0.08%, typical size either way 0.32%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.35%, the best +2.73%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.01% per candle, R² 0.02

Slope -0.01% per candle (down), R² 0.02 (choppy), 3 candles from the window's high, -0.68% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.06% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next two hours: 50% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 65% of the time (11 of 17 windows). The evidence in progress: Higher highs and higher lows (recent, up): went its way 125 of 296 times across 64 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 24 of 50 times across 31 names. Weighed together as 62 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 50%.

The range: 292.97 to 298.19 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 293.00, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from -0.01% (the 20th percentile) to +1.77% (the 80th); median +0.71%, typical size either way 0.98%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.98%, the best +2.64%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.10% per candle, R² 0.44

Slope +0.10% per candle (up), R² 0.44 (choppy), 18 candles from the window's low, +1.44% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print +0.77% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 42 of 100 leaned the right way (42%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 42 saw the close go the way they leaned; 55 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next six trading hours: 53% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 100% of the time (1 of 1 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (recent, up): went its way 65 of 209 times across 56 names. Weighed together as 42 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 53%.

The range: 296.69 to 296.69 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 293.00, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from +1.26% (the 20th percentile) to +1.26% (the 80th); median +1.26%, typical size either way 1.26%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was +1.26%, the best +1.26%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 53 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next session: 48% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 1 session later was higher 47% of the time (118 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, down): went its way 60 of 114 times on this name; Lower highs and lower lows (live, down): went its way 25 of 45 times on this name; Gap at the open (recent, down): went its way 40 of 90 times on this name; RSI into overbought / oversold (recent, up): went its way 4 of 11 times on this name; N consecutive falling candles (recent, down): went its way 5 of 10 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 3655 of 7277 times across 2283 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 48%.

The range: 268.87 to 276.84 — where four in five earlier windows of 1 session ended

From the last close of 273.10, this name's own 1 session moves ran from -1.55% (the 20th percentile) to +1.37% (the 80th); median -0.11%, typical size either way 1.14%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -10.44%, the best +10.53%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.43% per candle, R² 0.67

Slope -0.43% per candle (down), R² 0.67 (choppy), 16 candles from the window's high, -9.97% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 1 session it would print -0.43% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 6 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next five sessions: 54% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 5 sessions later was higher 46% of the time (114 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, down): went its way 48 of 114 times on this name; Lower highs and lower lows (live, down): went its way 18 of 45 times on this name; Gap at the open (recent, down): went its way 43 of 89 times on this name; RSI into overbought / oversold (recent, up): went its way 5 of 10 times on this name; N consecutive falling candles (recent, down): went its way 3 of 9 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 3661 of 7223 times across 2278 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 54%.

The range: 262.80 to 282.39 — where four in five earlier windows of 5 sessions ended

From the last close of 273.10, this name's own 5 sessions moves ran from -3.77% (the 20th percentile) to +3.40% (the 80th); median -0.58%, typical size either way 2.91%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -17.99%, the best +18.26%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.43% per candle, R² 0.67

Slope -0.43% per candle (down), R² 0.67 (choppy), 16 candles from the window's high, -9.97% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 5 sessions it would print -2.17% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 4 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next ten sessions: 48% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 10 sessions later was higher 39% of the time (98 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Move of X% within M candles (live, down): went its way 54 of 113 times on this name; Lower highs and lower lows (live, down): went its way 24 of 45 times on this name; Gap at the open (recent, down): went its way 39 of 88 times on this name; RSI into overbought / oversold (recent, up): went its way 5 of 10 times on this name; N consecutive falling candles (recent, down): went its way 5 of 9 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 3759 of 7183 times across 2274 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 48%.

The range: 258.41 to 285.06 — where four in five earlier windows of 10 sessions ended

From the last close of 273.10, this name's own 10 sessions moves ran from -5.38% (the 20th percentile) to +4.38% (the 80th); median -1.47%, typical size either way 3.73%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -16.29%, the best +30.55%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.43% per candle, R² 0.67

Slope -0.43% per candle (down), R² 0.67 (choppy), 16 candles from the window's high, -9.97% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 10 sessions it would print -4.34% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 2 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.