Leaning down over the next hour: 58% chance the close is lower

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 30% of the time (18 of 61 windows). The evidence in progress: Hammer (recent, up): went its way 561 of 1313 times across 184 names; RSI into overbought / oversold (recent, up): went its way 311 of 665 times across 94 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 42%.

The range: 1,299.17 to 1,304.38 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 1,303.60, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.34% (the 20th percentile) to +0.06% (the 80th); median -0.09%, typical size either way 0.15%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.60%, the best +0.27%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.03% per candle, R² 0.58

Slope -0.03% per candle (down), R² 0.58 (choppy), 11 candles from the window's high, -0.60% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.36% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next two hours: 56% chance the close is lower

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 24% of the time (4 of 17 windows). The evidence in progress: Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, down): went its way 307 of 592 times across 130 names; RSI into overbought / oversold (recent, up): went its way 113 of 227 times across 53 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 44%.

The range: 1,297.21 to 1,303.47 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 1,303.60, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from -0.49% (the 20th percentile) to -0.01% (the 80th); median -0.34%, typical size either way 0.34%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.57%, the best +0.08%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

What the patterns leaning this way typically reached

After earlier hits of the same reading, the move within 8 candles typically reached +0.61% in the hit's favour and -0.53% against it before the window closed. Typically — half the hits did less.

The trend line: falling 0.04% per candle, R² 0.69

Slope -0.04% per candle (down), R² 0.69 (choppy), 19 candles from the window's high, -0.93% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print -0.30% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 42 of 100 leaned the right way (42%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 42 saw the close go the way they leaned; 55 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

Leaning down over the next six trading hours: 98% chance the close is lower

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 0% of the time (0 of 1 windows). Nothing in progress on the latest candle has a record worth counting, so the chance is the base rate alone.

The range: 1,290.96 to 1,290.96 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 1,303.60, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from -0.97% (the 20th percentile) to -0.97% (the 80th); median -0.97%, typical size either way 0.97%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.97%, the best -0.97%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 53 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.