The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 64% · evidence 1 pattern (42 obs)
- Last close
- ₹456.70 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:25 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹456.33 – ₹460.58 -0.08% · +0.85%
- Typical move
- +0.11% median of 63 windows
- Trend line
- +0.047%/candle · R² 0.39 carried forward +0.56%
- Record
- 54 of 100 leaned right (54%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 52% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 63% of the time (40 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Marubozu (recent, down): went its way 1593 of 3008 times across 201 names. Weighed together as 42 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 52%.
The range: 456.33 to 460.58 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 456.70, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.08% (the 20th percentile) to +0.85% (the 80th); median +0.11%, typical size either way 0.20%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -2.17%, the best +2.49%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: rising 0.05% per candle, R² 0.39
Slope +0.05% per candle (up), R² 0.39 (choppy), 18 candles from the window's low, +0.50% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print +0.56% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 54 of 100 leaned the right way (54%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 54 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.