The next hour
5-minute candles · 12 aheadbase rate 43% · evidence 5 patterns (80 obs)
- Last close
- ₹1,255.00 as of Mon 21 Sep, 15:25 IST
- Range, 20th–80th
- ₹1,252.62 – ₹1,256.13 -0.19% · +0.09%
- Typical move
- -0.02% median of 63 windows
- Trend line
- -0.013%/candle · R² 0.37 carried forward -0.16%
- Record
- 53 of 100 leaned right (53%) site-wide
How this was counted, in words
No lean over the next hour: 47% chance the close is higher — a coin toss
On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 43% of the time (27 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: Volume spike (recent, down): went its way 728 of 1374 times across 164 names; Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, down): went its way 957 of 1875 times across 210 names; Moving-average cross (recent, down): went its way 545 of 1032 times across 195 names; RSI into overbought / oversold (recent, up): went its way 311 of 665 times across 94 names; Bollinger squeeze, then a break (recent, down): went its way 146 of 291 times across 64 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 47%.
The range: 1,252.62 to 1,256.13 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended
From the last close of 1,255.00, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.19% (the 20th percentile) to +0.09% (the 80th); median -0.02%, typical size either way 0.10%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.92%, the best +0.31%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.
The trend line: falling 0.01% per candle, R² 0.37
Slope -0.01% per candle (down), R² 0.37 (choppy), 10 candles from the window's high, -0.40% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.16% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.
How these outlooks have fared: 53 of 100 leaned the right way (53%)
Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 53 saw the close go the way they leaned; 67 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.
Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.