No lean over the next hour: 46% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 5-minute candles the close 12 candles later was higher 51% of the time (32 of 63 windows). The evidence in progress: VWAP cross (live, up): went its way 829 of 2006 times across 204 names; Bullish engulfing (live, up): went its way 620 of 1400 times across 206 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 31 of 72 times across 39 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 46%.

The range: 656.82 to 665.85 — where four in five earlier windows of 12 candles ended

From the last close of 658.80, this name's own 12 candles moves ran from -0.30% (the 20th percentile) to +1.07% (the 80th); median +0.02%, typical size either way 0.33%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -1.06%, the best +1.90%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: falling 0.03% per candle, R² 0.51

Slope -0.03% per candle (down), R² 0.51 (choppy), 15 candles from the window's high, -0.35% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 12 candles it would print -0.37% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 57 of 100 leaned the right way (57%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 57 saw the close go the way they leaned; 59 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next two hours: 52% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own 15-minute candles the close 8 candles later was higher 65% of the time (11 of 17 windows). The evidence in progress: Bullish engulfing (recent, up): went its way 219 of 454 times across 112 names; Inside bar, then a breakout (recent, down): went its way 307 of 592 times across 130 names; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, down): went its way 25 of 51 times across 31 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 52%.

The range: 656.89 to 667.03 — where four in five earlier windows of 8 candles ended

From the last close of 658.80, this name's own 8 candles moves ran from -0.29% (the 20th percentile) to +1.25% (the 80th); median +0.77%, typical size either way 0.84%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -0.84%, the best +1.58%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 0.07% per candle, R² 0.47

Slope +0.07% per candle (up), R² 0.47 (choppy), 15 candles from the window's low, +1.36% from it; the last close is off the line. If that line simply continued for 8 candles it would print +0.58% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this choppy say little about the next candle.

How these outlooks have fared: 56 of 100 leaned the right way (56%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 56 saw the close go the way they leaned; 53 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next six trading hours: 49% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own hourly candles the close 6 candles later was higher 100% of the time (1 of 1 windows). The evidence in progress: VWAP cross (recent, up): went its way 119 of 295 times across 59 names; Move of X% within M candles (recent, up): went its way 71 of 216 times across 56 names; Evening star (recent, down): went its way 18 of 28 times across 20 names. Weighed together as 80 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 49%.

The range: 659.13 to 659.13 — where four in five earlier windows of 6 candles ended

From the last close of 658.80, this name's own 6 candles moves ran from +0.05% (the 20th percentile) to +0.05% (the 80th); median +0.05%, typical size either way 0.05%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was +0.05%, the best +0.05%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

How these outlooks have fared: 52 of 100 leaned the right way (52%)

Of the last 100 outlooks with a lean at this candle size and horizon across every name, 52 saw the close go the way they leaned; 57 of 100 closed inside the range printed. Every outlook issued is counted, none dropped.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.

No lean over the next five sessions: 52% chance the close is higher — a coin toss

On this name's own daily candles the close 5 sessions later was higher 52% of the time (129 of 250 windows). The evidence in progress: Trend line: slope, length, strength (live, up): went its way 6 of 9 times on this name; Move of X% within M candles (recent, down): went its way 63 of 120 times on this name; Higher highs and higher lows (recent, up): went its way 21 of 36 times on this name; Impulse wave (five swings, Elliott-style) (building, up): went its way 1 of 6 times on this name. Weighed together as 79 observations against the base rate's 20, that gives 52%.

The range: 681.63 to 757.67 — where four in five earlier windows of 5 sessions ended

From the last close of 714.65, this name's own 5 sessions moves ran from -4.62% (the 20th percentile) to +6.02% (the 80th); median +0.09%, typical size either way 4.01%. One in five windows ended outside that range — the worst was -15.38%, the best +23.10%. The two references are those percentiles on today's close, nothing more.

The trend line: rising 1.02% per candle, R² 0.83

Slope +1.02% per candle (up), R² 0.83 (straight), 18 candles from the window's low, +20.21% from it; the last close is with the line. If that line simply continued for 5 sessions it would print +5.09% — arithmetic, not a call; lines this straight have tended to continue more often than not.

How these outlooks have fared: too few judged to say

Only 4 outlooks at this candle size and horizon has a closed window so far; the record is printed once there are 20.

Our arithmetic from stored candles — no recommendation, no forecast of any price: a chance counted from this name's own record, with the times it was wrong counted beside it. The decision, and the risk, are yours.